Proof ledger · as of 2026-10-30

Every claim below links to the record behind it. Where the record is private it says so, and one claim is marked not yet shown.

21shown
8on request
1not yet shown

30 claims · tap any line to zoom in

01 / 06Can he build and ship?Yes. Solo, in production, with a dated record of the work.
shown2026-10-30Built ARCS, a decision intelligence platform on Claude, and runs it in production.

The live app, and a status page that measures the build from the repository itself.

record: status.arcs.care

shown2026-10-305,700+ commits on main since April 2026, counted live.

Live pulse JSON from the production app: commitsTotal 5,713 at 05:10 UTC.

record: app.arcs.care/api/pulse

shown2026-10-2099 pull requests merged in one day, a human approving every one.

Release notes for the day: what shipped, what broke, and an honest human-time estimate.

record: One Day, 99 Merges

on request2026-10-291,580+ pull requests merged, each approved by a human and receipted.

GitHub merged-PR count, 1,581 on 2026-10-29. The repository is private.

A real record that is private (employer data or a private repository). References available.

shown2026-10-30Publishes open, MIT-licensed tools built for his own work.

germinate, a provenance-carrying handoff protocol for multi-agent work, and resume-tailor, a Claude Code skill for honest resumes.

record: good.arcs.care

02 / 06Can he operate where mistakes are expensive?Yes. SEC, FINRA, HIPAA and GDPR environments, with outcomes to match.
on request2025Grayscale: ran ten SEC and FINRA regulated products, a $7B portfolio; cut release-cycle time 35 percent with zero violations.

Employer record, 2024 to 2025. References available.

A real record that is private (employer data or a private repository). References available.

shown2020Led a PE turnaround's patient journey rebuild for a $350M ARR, 3,500+ clinic medical program under HIPAA: qualified leads up 40 percent, program adherence at 73 percent.

Ideal Protein, via Squat New York, 2019 to 2020: research through relaunch, a two-step qualification flow, accessibility and HIPAA-safe forms. Booking success within five miles up 63 percent; website NPS up 23 points. Condensed from an 18-slide deck that was confidential while the company was a PE holding.

record: Ideal Protein growth case

on request2026-10-30Per-tenant database roles with row-level security that fail closed.

In the private repository; walkthrough on request.

A real record that is private (employer data or a private repository). References available.

shown2026-08-30Turns a recurring bug into a gate that fails the build on the whole class, not just the instance.

A recurring bug becomes a gate, a misattribution becomes a named pathogen, and the detector's first true positive lands on the document it was built to protect.

record: NFTT Post 4

shown2026-09-02Spotted a state-sponsored fake-recruiter malware lure, dissected it for defenders, and built a scanner from it.

The DPRK Famous Chollima (G1052) operation delivering BeaverTail and InvisibleFerret: the matched-pair account, a detection and response dossier, and sbom-payload-scan, which checks an unknown repo's dependencies for payloads before anything runs.

record: The Take-Home Trap: dossier

shown2026-09-24Found a six-week silent production outage in his own product, fixed it, and published how.

A migration shipped in code but never reached production, breaking every saved decision for six weeks.

record: The Question That Found the Outage

03 / 06Does he change his mind when the evidence says so?Yes, and he keeps the record: every belief that broke, the test that broke it, and what replaced it.
shown2026-09-2942 beliefs logged as overturned, each with the test that overturned it.

A public falsification ledger. Three of the entries:

  1. F14 · 2026-06-03

    Believed: A green Next.js production build means the database layer works.

    Test: first real prisma.$queryRaw against prod (a 401 gate meant zero traffic had ever hit the routes).

    Found: green build proves nothing; `prisma generate` never connects, so every create() threw at runtime, unlogged.

  2. F26 · 2026-07-24

    Believed: `gh pr checks --watch && gh pr merge` is a sufficient merge gate.

    Test: a background watcher merged PR #130 while claude-security-review was RED.

    Found: --watch exits 0 on completion, not on passing; a red X can still merge.

  3. F25 · 2026-08-01

    Believed: Content probes (grep/curl) are sufficient to claim a UI is polished and verified.

    Test: repeated 'polish' commits verified only by grep; the rail was visibly broken (orphaned dot, 3-line wrap) the whole time.

    Found: text checks prove presence, not layout; a screenshot caught what grep couldn't.

record: status.arcs.care/beliefs

shown2026-09-07Books his own errors: 14 false receipts the system caught against itself in one week.

A system that only counts what it built is keeping half a book.

record: Assets and Liabilities

shown2026-09-11Makes dated public predictions and checks them against what happened.

Three dated calls about Apple, scored against the outcome.

record: Closing the Loop

shown2026-10-06Published seven market calls with their falsifiers stated up front, then scored them, two corrections owned in public.

What held, what missed, and one move the calls only partly explain. Misses stay on the record.

record: Seven Calls, Seven Falsifiers

shown2026-09-23Ran a belief ledger in public: twelve pieces written before a lawsuit existed, read against the complaint once it was filed.

The calibration system applied to a real case, forward in time.

record: TIL: Apple and OpenAI

shown2026-09-30Takes hard feedback from strangers: a recruiter called his resume AI slop, and he agreed.

Notes on the review nobody on your own team can give you.

record: Any Stranger Can Be a Bar Raiser

04 / 06Does he work in the open?Yes. The build, the mistakes and the lessons are published as they happen, with dates.
shown2026-10-0633 Notes from the Trenches posts since 2026-08-18: what building ARCS taught him, with the receipts.

Every post carries a frozen publish timestamp taken from the commit that routed it.

record: Notes from the Trenches

shown2026-10-20Long-form deep dives with a belief ledger scored before the outcome and re-scored against it.

Today I Learned: forensic reads, each with its predictions written down first.

record: Today I Learned

shown2026-10-30Built in public since day zero: the live build status is measured from the repository, not written by hand.

Commits, days and milestones, each tied to a real commit.

record: status.arcs.care

05 / 06Does the work turn into revenue?Yes. Revenue built from zero more than once.
on request2011Grew a video ad network from $4,500 to more than $1M a month, and net operating margin by 25 percent.

General Manager, Selectable Media, 2010 to 2011.

A real record that is private (employer data or a private repository). References available.

on request2018Closed the WTA's first commercial data partnerships, with Twitter and Facebook: $850K in year one.

Head of Product and Strategic Partnerships, 2016 to 2018.

A real record that is private (employer data or a private repository). References available.

on request2019Rebuilt a foundation's CRM and customer data into one source of truth; net-new revenue up 20 percent.

Senior Director, Data and Strategy, Children's Tumor Foundation, 2018 to 2019.

A real record that is private (employer data or a private repository). References available.

on request2016Co-founded a direct-to-consumer brand: zero to profitability and more than $2M revenue in 24 months.

Co-founder, IBRShop, 2012 to 2016.

A real record that is private (employer data or a private repository). References available.

shown2026-09-26Packaged the method as a fixed-price offer: an audit of whether a cold reader can rebuild what a team's AI agents did from the record alone.

The offer page. A productized method, not a revenue figure.

record: Agent Receipts Audit

06 / 06How does he work with AI agents?As the one who governs them: agents do the work, a human approves it, and every failure becomes a rule.
shown2026-09-24When an agent sent two emails nobody asked for, he published its account and turned it into a standing rule.

Never treat your own inference as authorization.

record: A Draft Is Not a Verb

shown2026-09-25Tested whether a second agent, never present, could rebuild an incident from the committed record alone, then ran a controlled cold-versus-warm experiment.

What the cold reader could not rebuild turned out to be the real finding; the warm reader with the participant's memory did not corrupt the record, it changed something stranger.

record: The Control and the Experiment

shown2026-09-13Runs agent sessions in parallel and publishes where that breaks: two sessions fixed the same bug an hour apart, and the protocol meant to stop it never fired.

The account of the collision and the lock that was already there.

record: The Lock That Was Already There

on request2026-10-20Graph retrieval over his tool catalog beat the flat catalog 16 of 18 to 6 of 18 in a pre-registered blind test.

Pre-registration and raw results in the private repository.

A real record that is private (employer data or a private repository). References available.

not yet shown2026-10-30ARCS's decision scoring is accurate.

Each decision is scored when made and closed against its outcome. Not enough outcomes have closed to publish an accuracy figure, so none is claimed.

No record yet. Listed so the gap is visible.